What happened in Umbria

Analyses of elections rely usually on percentage. This approach could be useful 40 years ago, when the number of voters was very high, but today it is biased by the large and varying number of  asbtensionists.

This is particularly evident with the analysi of electoral results of regional eelctions in Umbra a f ew months ago. These results have been interpreted as a consistent shift of the electorate form PD and M5S to Lega Nord. Nonethelss it must be taken into account the fact that the number of  asbtebtiobnist was drastically reduced. If abosulyte numbers insteat than percentages are taken into account a very different picture emerges.

It appears thaat M5S and the left mantained more or less the same number of electors, with slight decrease that can be attributed probably more to abstension than to shift to the rightm, whereas the right increased  fishing electors among a consistent body of abstensionuists.

The results of the recent elections in Emilia Romagna seem to support this interpretation,